As the largest carriers grow, their power expands, allowing them to control the market—specifically pricing, capacity, and the service provided. There are limited options, especially for those shipping on long-distance trade lanes like Asia to Europe and the Transpacific routes. These lanes are almost entirely controlled by the top ten container lines.

If you look at the global container business, it has dramatically changed since 2000. Back then, the top 10 carriers controlled about half of the world’s container business, with approximately 100 carriers in total. Today, only about 40 carriers remain, and the top 10 now control nearly 85% of the total global volume. The top 4 alone manage almost two-thirds of the business. On long-distance trades, the top 10 have very few, and very small, competitors left.

Their control is nearly complete. The top 4—MSC, Maersk, CMA-CGM, and COSCO—are the key players, with the other six following their lead to maintain a viable part of the business. This is the current reality of the ocean industry, a trend that has been progressing for years through acquisitions and bankruptcies, leaving just a handful of carriers to control the market.

Another issue of control among the big carriers is Blank Sailings. You may have noticed that carriers have been quite successful in using Blank Sailings to keep available capacity in check. They seem to follow each other closely in this strategy.

Currently, the big East-West alliances have broken apart and reformed, mostly. MSC and Maersk officially split from the 2M Alliance as of January 2025. MSC is going solo as an alliance and certainly seems big enough to do so. Maersk has paired with German carrier Hapag-Lloyd to form the Gemini Cooperation. Their strategy involves shifting away from direct port service to a hub-and-spoke model, which marks a significant change from the services traditionally offered by the container industry. This new approach should be watched closely and assessed as it could be a game changer if they operate smoothly in the first few months.

The Ocean Alliance remains intact with CMA-CGM, COSCO and sister carrier OOCL, along with Evergreen Lines.

The Alliance, where Hapag-Lloyd was previously a key player, now consists of ONE, Yang Ming Lines, and HMM. They will reform as the Premier Alliance, though with much less capacity and fewer sailings. It seems their focus will be on the Transpacific trade, but this is still unclear. ONE is reportedly in talks with MSC to collaborate on some Asia-Europe services. Meanwhile, Zim Lines, which continues to operate independently as the 11th-largest global carrier, will share some services with MSC on the Asia-Transpacific East Coast routes.

It would not be surprising if 2025 starts with numerous service issues, fluctuating transit times, Blank Sailings, schedule changes, and other disruptions that cause promised transit days to vary widely. Actual transit times may be as unpredictable as ever.

What can you do about this? Be aware that these shifting conditions will likely worsen services in 2025. The changes will continue to strengthen carriers' control over pricing, meaning higher costs. While service might eventually improve, it's hard to predict when.

However, you can still strengthen your control and improve your program for procuring ocean services for your business. Contract season and annual pricing reviews are coming soon. What do you need? What do you want? Build your business requirements, shipment history, and a business profile. Then start building direct relationships with carriers, NVOCCs, or forwarders. Meet with them early to discuss your needs. The sooner, the better. Then, choose the best candidates to include in your RFP program as early as possible.