Multiple trade issues are still affecting global trade. Here are the major issues for the US, North America, and their impact on other regions of the world: 

1. US East Coast/Gulf Ports Longshoremen (ILA/USMX) Contracts
   The current temporary agreement has "settled" the wage question and extended the old contracts until January 15th, just four months away. Significant issues such as automation, jurisdiction, and benefits still need to be agreed upon, and they are major sticking points. And just because the wage increase was agreed upon doesn’t mean it cannot come up again in the next cycle of discussions. Until a new contract is signed, anything can happen, and any issue could resurface on either side. Expect fierce negotiations, especially after the November 5 elections.
   
   ACTIONS: To limit risk, your main options are:    

• Start building up your inventory now: Only about 95 days remain, and it’s best to arrive well before January 15th! There’s not much time to place orders, make products, sail, arrive, and get through port before the next crisis.
• Route more shipments through the West Coast and Western Canada: Any destination not near the East Coast should be an option, and much is served intermodally from the West Coast. The Gulf, except Florida, is fully served.
• Shippers/BCO/Importers: Meet with your best logistics provider as soon as possible and get their strategy recommendations for you. If they don’t have one, move on!

2. China Shipments / 301 Tariff Rates
   The 301 tariff rates are affecting more products now and some starting in January. Be sure to know what they are and whether you are impacted. Shippers affected will likely push shipments out of China before the end of the year to avoid the January tariffs, which may add to possible congestion from East Coast issues. (See below for 301 tariff information.)
3. Lunar New Year
   Lunar New Year falls on January 29th, 2025. Many years, the weeks leading up to Chinese New Year bring a surge of shipments from China. This will add to the congestion from the two issues above. Be aware that vessel capacity could tighten significantly for November bookings across Asia bound for the US and Canada.

Other ongoing issues include the Red Sea and the alternative travel routes around Africa for Europe, the Mediterranean, parts of Africa, and many countries on the East Coast of the Americas. Changes in global ocean alliances will also cause concerns for 2025 and should be factored into your sourcing and contracting plans. The top ten ocean carriers have reorganized, and major changes are underway. More on that soon.

Now is a good time to meet with your leadership and present a plan. Even if they choose not to prepare for these likely issues, you’ll have done your job by offering them strategic options.

US Imports from China Update (301 Tariff)
The 301 tariff changes for Chinese products shipped to the US were recently announced by the Biden Administration. These changes include maintaining current tariffs on Chinese imports and imposing new tariffs on various products, such as:

• Semiconductors: Tariffs will increase from 25% to 50% by 2025.
• Steel and Aluminum Products: Tariffs will rise from 7.5% to 25% in 2024.
• Electric Vehicles: Tariffs will jump from 25% to 100% in 2024.
• Lithium Batteries and Critical Minerals: Tariffs will increase from 7.5% to 25% in 2024.
• Solar Cells: Tariffs will rise from 25% to 50% in 2024.
• Ship-to-Shore Cranes: Tariffs will be imposed at 25% in 2024.
• Rubber Medical and Surgical Gloves: Tariffs will increase from 7.5% to 25% in 2026.

Check with your trade compliance experts for the actual effective dates, ongoing updates, and exact details for each product tariff group. These changes will be very costly compared to prior duty rates. Details can be found here.

From past experience, the products included or excluded, and the actual duty rate, can change again prior to the implementation date. A change in the White House in January, for example, might alter this entire program, regardless of which candidate wins the election. Additionally, petitions from various importers or associations may result in further changes.